Summary of macroeconomic and institutional investment risk

The solid side: public debt of ~27% of GDP (2025), a quetzal stable for a quarter of a century, reserves covering more than 7 months of imports (2024), inflation of 2.7% (Jul 2026), a leading rate of 3.50% and three agencies holding the country one notch below investment grade (Ba1 / BB+ / BB+ — Fitch upgraded to BB+ stable on 14-Oct-2025 and keeps it on its “emerging stars” list). The fragile side: the state collects ~12% of GDP and invests ~1.6%, so stability is financed by structural austerity; poverty of 56% (2023) and chronic child malnutrition of ~45-46% (2024); a CPI score of 26/100 (2025); dependence on remittances of ~19-21% of GDP, exposed to US immigration policy; a rebound in homicides in 2025 (17.4 per 100k) after a decade of improvement; endemic extortion of small and medium-sized enterprises; and a 2027 electoral cycle whose immediate precedent (2023-24) included attempts to overturn the result through the courts.

The research is written in English; quoted figures, source names and the titles of legal instruments stay in the language their source published them in.